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USDA Cattle On Feed and Cattle Inventory Report  07/20 14:00

By John A. Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

                        USDA Actual  Average Guess      Range
Cattle On Feed:
On Feed July 1             104.0%        104.0%     102.5-106.0%
Placed in June             101.0%        101.5%      95.5-106.5%
Marketed in June           101.0%        101.0%      98.5-106.5%

July 1 Cattle*
All Cattle                 101.0%         100.5%          NA
Total Cows                 101.0%         100.5%          NA
Beef Cows                  101.0%         100.5%          NA
Milk Cows                  100.0%         99.5%           NA
Total Heifers Over 500#    101.0%         100.5%          NA
Beef Replacements           98.0%         96.5%           NA
Milk Replacements          100.0%         99.5%           NA

Other Heifers              103.0%         104.0%          NA
Steers 500# Plus           100.0%         100.0%          NA
Bulls 500# Plus            105.0%         100.0%          NA
Calves Under 500#          102.0%         100.0%          NA
2018 Calf Crop             102.0%         101.5%          NA
*Compared to 2017

Cattle On Feed Comments: The numbers just released appear to be 
extremely boring, at least relative to what the trade expected. 
Private analysts nailed this one pretty well. In terms of fed 
production potential, the report should be considered bearish. 
But that comes to no one as a surprise.

The July 1 bunk line was confirmed to be the longest since the 
series began in 1996. The inventory included 7.13 million 
steers, up 2% from the previous year and 4.15 million heifers, 
up 8% from 2017. Here's more evidence that she-stock has moved 
back from herd expansion potential and forward toward fed beef 
production. 

Beyond these numbers tied to big lots with capacity of 1,000 
head or more, cattle in the United States for all feedlots 
totaled 13.3 million head, also 4% greater than 2017. Cattle on 
feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted 
for 84.8% of the total cattle on feed on July 1, up slightly 
from the previous year.

July 1 Cattle Inventory: Totaling 103.3 million head, the 
midsummer assessment turned out to be 1 million head larger than 
the year before and the largest midsummer head count since 2008.

The 2018 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 36.5 
million head, up 2% from last year's calf crop. Calves born 
during the first half of 2018 are estimated at 26.6 million 
head, up 2% from the first half of 2017. An additional 9.90 
million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 
2018.

Feeder cattle outside of feedlots as of July 1 totaled 37.1 
million head, roughly a half-percent above the prior year.

For more Harrington comments, check out 
http://www.feelofthemarket.com


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